Electric cars on the market
Porsche Electric Car |
In order to meet the goal of US automakers Obama will not be
without a large part of the electric car. Traditional combustion engines can
meet the target, the current ada.Amerika not play well with this size in a
market where competition is increasingly fierce in the field of energy
efficiency. "People think the Europeans do much better, which used to be
so, but it is now changing," said Peter Mock, head of research at the
International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), a non profit organization
that provides information on clean mobility.
In 2010, the U.S. economy continued recovery from
recession. As part of that recovery, sales of U.S. light-duty vehicles
rebounded to approximately 12 million in 2010 from less than 10 million in
2009. Historically, U.S. sales of new light duty passenger vehicles ranged from
15-16 million per year from 2005-2008.2 Conventional hybrid
electric vehicles (HEVs) have been on sale in the U.S. for over ten years, and
today sales have grown to almost three percent of total light-duty vehicles.
Over 1.6 million HEVs have been sold over the past six years. To reach the one million vehicle goal, EVs will need
to average just under 1.7 percent of sales through 2015 (assuming sales of 12
million light-duty vehicles per year).
With increases in the Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) standards, vehicle manufacturers are required to increase fuel economy
through 2016, with further increases beyond 2016 under consideration. On March
30, 2009, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) published
the final rule raising CAFE standards for both cars and light trucks. These new
standards will encourage the expanded market entry of electric drive
technologies.
Market for Electric
Drive Vehicles Expected to Increase
Over
the past few years, interest in EVs in the U.S. auto industry has surged, with
manufacturers beginning to introduce new generations of EVs. For example, in
2010 General Motors introduced the Chevrolet Volt extended range electric
vehicle into the U.S. market. The Volt can travel up to 40 miles using power
from its lithium-ion battery pack. After that, the Volt can travel up to 375
miles in extended range using its internal combustion engine electric
generator. GM has announced plans to build 15,000 Chevy Volts in 2011 and
45,000 in 2012. Based on news reports, the company is working on plans to
increase its production target for 2012 to 120,000. (See Table references.) In
late 2010, Nissan introduced the Leaf, a 100-mile range all-electric vehicle
that incorporates an advanced lithium-ion battery as its sole power source.
In 2012, the 96,000 plug-in electric cars sold in the U.S.
represented a bit more than half a percent of the total market of 16.5 million
vehicles.Market share is a good statistic: It's useful, and easy to track. But
we need to piece together the relationships between vehicle price, type, and
market share, to gain a fuller sense of the electric-car landscape.
U.S. Auto Market in 2013 |
Slimming down U.S.
sales
Sales figures for all vehicles sold in the United States in
2013 can be obtained in many places; we used GoodCarBadCar.net (which kindly
credits GreenCarReports in its Canadian Tesla sales reports).That data covered
about 98 percent of reported U.S. auto sales, good enough for our purposes. The
balance consists of commercial vehicles like delivery vans. We estimated
Tesla's American sales based on its quarterly shareholder letters, and
estimated sales abroad.
Looking up the entry-level sticker price for each of the 271
models listed, we used that as a proxy for each one's average selling price.
It's a necessary simplification: automakers don't break down their sales by
trim level publicly.Sales of deluxe models may push a vehicle's average
transaction price higher, but dealer and manufacturer discounts have some
counterbalancing effect--so the entry-level MSRP was a good first
approximation.
Netting out Federal Credit
For electric vehicles, we added two steps. Since prices on
several plug-ins were cut during the year (thank you, experience curve
effects!), we used the average of the starting and ending MSRPs. Then we
subtracted the Federal income-tax credit for each vehicle, to reflect the price
most buyers would have actually paid.Keeping in mind that our calculated
selling prices were rough estimates, we can see that about two-thirds of the
U.S. market is made up of cars costing less than $25,000.